Methodology

How the calculation works

Every figure comes from the European Commission's published data, and every result names the source of each input. Where the data cannot answer, the calculator says so instead of estimating.

The calculation

embedded emissions = quantity × published default × (1 + markup)

free allocation = quantity × retained share × correction factor × benchmark

certificates = max(0, embedded emissions − free allocation)

cost = certificates × certificate price for the import quarter

The default value is specific to the product, the country of origin and the production route. The benchmark is specific to the product, its route and the applicable period. Neither is a sector average.

Where the numbers come from

  • Default emission valuesAnnex I v2, dated 2026-08-06 — 12,540 rows across 122 origins
  • Free-allocation benchmarks570 CN codes with 2,465 route and period variants
  • Certificate priceThe Commission's published quarterly price, applied by import quarter
  • Markups and phase-outThe statutory schedules, recorded with their legal basis

Dataset dv-2026-08-06. The workbooks are transcribed with their published hashes recorded, and regenerated from source on every build. The Commission states they are informational and not legally binding — only the cited implementing regulations are.

What it will not calculate

These refuse rather than approximate. An answer that looks plausible but rests on an assumption nobody made is worse than no answer.

  • Verified supplier dataNeeds the prescribed benchmark and precursor treatment. Using the default-path benchmark instead would understate the obligation.
  • A carbon price paid in the country of originNeeds the prescribed eligibility and deduction method. Multiplying certificates by a national headline price is not a substitute, so no deduction is applied.
  • ElectricityIts default values sit in annexes this dataset does not cover.
  • A quarter with no published priceThe Commission publishes on fixed dates. A quarter it has not reached cannot be priced.
  • Whether a good is legally coveredScope, exclusions and origin exemptions are a question for the regulation. This calculator reports whether a code appears in the published data, which is not the same thing.

What a result is, and is not

A planning estimate from published default values. It is not a CBAM declaration, not verified emissions data, and not advice.

Every result carries the dataset, engine and parameter revisions that produced it, so the same case can be reproduced or checked later. An exemption is reported as an exemption rather than a cost of zero, and a refusal shows no figure at all.